Many of South Africa’s most recognisable birds of prey are disappearing at an alarming rate, according to a major new study tracking raptor populations across central South Africa over the past 16 years.
Researchers analysed trends for 18 raptor species and eight large terrestrial bird species between 2009 and 2025 using 752 road count transects covering nearly 392,000km. The results revealed that half the species studied declined significantly, many by more than 50%, while only three species showed clear increases.
‘Detected in species that play key ecological roles’
“These results point to widespread and often severe population declines across South Africa’s raptor community,” said Dr Santiago Zuluaga, lead author of the study and a researcher at the University of Cape Town and the National Museum of Natural Sciences of Spain. “What is particularly concerning is that some of the steepest declines were detected in species that play key ecological roles and are already considered conservation priorities.”
Among the most worrying findings was a 68% decline in the Endangered Secretarybird, one of Africa’s most iconic grassland predators.
“The declines detected in species such as Secretarybirds are especially worrying,” said Dr Megan Murgatroyd, International Programs Director at HawkWatch International and co-author of the study. “These birds require vast areas to survive and reproduce, so sustained population losses at this scale suggest that pressures across the landscape are having real and lasting impacts.”
declines across wide range of species
Strong declines were also recorded in migratory raptors including Lesser Kestrel, Amur Falcon and Steppe Buzzard. Species currently listed as Least Concern, such as Spotted Eagle-Owl and Jackal Buzzard, also showed marked declines, suggesting populations may be deteriorating long before official conservation assessments detect the changes.
The study also raises important questions about how bird populations are monitored in Africa. Researchers compared their road count results with data from the Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP2), a large citizen-science initiative based on checklist reporting by birders.
Checklist-based citizen science surveys are increasingly popular because they help map species distributions and population changes across large areas. However, the comparison revealed starkly different outcomes between the two methods. While road counts found 13 of 26 species declining significantly, SABAP2 data showed only three species declining and 11 appearing to increase. Only around half the trends matched between the two approaches.
Multiple monitoring approaches
Researchers say the findings suggest atlas reporting rates may not always accurately reflect true abundance trends for wide-ranging species across large spatial scales.
“Citizen science atlas projects like SABAP2 are absolutely vital for bird conservation in Africa,” said Associate Professor Arjun Amar, senior author of the study from the University of Cape Town. “Our findings underline the importance of combining multiple monitoring approaches, particularly for wide-ranging species such as raptors, to ensure we have the most accurate picture possible of how populations are changing.”
The road count data underpinning the study were collected over more than 15 years by Ronelle Visagie of the Endangered Wildlife Trust.
Over 15 years in the making
“When I started these road counts over 15 years ago, I never expected that they would reveal such severe declines across so many species,” said Visagie. “It involved a huge amount of time on the road, counting birds year after year, but it is reassuring to see that all that effort has produced something meaningful that can genuinely inform conservation.”
Raptors are among Africa’s fastest-declining bird groups, threatened by habitat loss, agricultural expansion, infrastructure, poisoning, illegal killing and climate change. As top predators and scavengers, they play a critical role in maintaining healthy ecosystems.
“With human populations in Africa projected to increase sharply over the coming decades, pressures on biodiversity are only likely to intensify,” said Zuluaga. “Robust, long-term monitoring is essential if we are to detect declines early and implement conservation actions before populations reach critical levels.”
News source: EurekAlert
